Which Countries in ASEAN Have the Fastest Growing Economies in 2020?

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By Mr. Bee

Phnom Penh: Cambodia’s economic growth remains the highest with the four ASEAN countries including Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia despite global uncertainty and the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19).

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The global economy is predicted to be weakened due to the global uncertainty of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

Cambodia

The Cambodian government lowered its economic growth forecast to around 6.5 percent by 2020 due to external and internal issues that would slow down the Cambodian economy, according to a senior government official.

Vongsey Visoth, secretary of state at the Ministry of Economy and Finance, said at a Public Forum on Macroeconomic Management and the Budget Law 2020 that the country’s economy will grow around 6.5 percent in 2020 due to the Wuhan virus outbreak in China (COVID-19), trade war issues which will be prolonged and EBA issues.

“The biggest problem for 2020 is that the new respiratory virus originating from China could affect the Cambodian economy, the US-China trade war, which has long-term affect despite reaching the phase-one agreement in between the two countries is because China is Cambodia’s largest trading and investment partner,” said Vongsey
In terms of economic growth, he said, “Our national budget over the past three and four years has been around only 24.5 percent of GDP, but in 2020, we will reach 28 percent, increasing economic demand to support our growth.”

The biggest budget is to tackle the so-called infrastructure problem, the competitiveness of the economy and the diversification of the economy, the transportation, skill, electricity, and the other is job creation.

Indonesia

Indonesia’s economy grew more slowly than expected last year, official data showed Wednesday, and officials warned the country’s lucrative tourism sector faced a negative impact from a drop in Chinese tourists owing to the deadly coronavirus.

Southeast Asia’s biggest economy expanded 5.02 percent, down from the 5.17 percent the previous year, owing to weakness in exports and softer manufacturing output.

The figures also missed forecasts for a 5.3 percent expansion.

In December, the World Bank warned that forest fires which raged across Indonesia last year hit the economy to the tune of some $5.2 billion.

Malaysia

Fitch Solutions has revised down its 2020 real GDP (gross domestic product) growth forecast for Malaysia to 3.7 per cent, from 4.5 per cent previously.

In a statement today, the research unit said this revision reflects the downside risks to all expenditure categories, except government consumption, as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak worldwide.

“We expect government stimulus and a likely sharper fall in imports to provide some support in the face of heavy downside risks, preventing a collapse in growth,” it said.

Philippine

Global credit watchdog Moody’s Investors Service has trimmed the gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.1 percent instead of 6.2 percent this year amid the global outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

Christian de Guzman, senior vice president at Moody’s, said the outbreak adds to other pressures on growth in Asia-Pacific, with the impact felt primarily in trade and tourism, and for some sectors also through supply-chain disruptions.

De Guzman said the shock comes on the back of a marked slowdown in 2019 as decelerating global trade hit the region.

Vietnam

The complicated and unpredictable developments of the respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus, known as Covid-19, are presenting numerous challenges to the realisation of Vietnam’s socio-economic targets in 2020, given its far-reaching impacts on all aspects.

The Vietnamese government has yet to revise its growth target but is calling for quick responses to transform challenges into opportunities to build a self-reliant economy resilient to external impacts.

Weighing the expected impacts of the Covid-19 epidemic on Vietnam’s economy, the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) has updated its economic growth scenarios for 2020 and proposed measures in accordance with its projections.

In the first scenario, when the epidemic is contained in the first quarter, GDP growth is projected at 6.25%, down 0.55 percentage points from the government’s target, with inflation forecast at 3.96%. If the epidemic drags into and is contained within the second quarter, growth is projected at 5.96% while inflation is 4.86%.

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